Ensemble Dynamics and Bred Vectors
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Ensemble Dynamics and Bred Vectors
We propose a variant of the Bred Vector (BV) algorithm, orginally introduced by Z. Toth and E. Kalnay (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 74:2317 2330, 1993) to assess the sensitivity of model outputs to changes in initial conditions for weather forecasting. The new algorithm, which we call the Ensemble Bred Vector or EBV, is based on collective dynamics in an essential way. As suc...
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Bred vectors are a type of finite perturbation used in prediction studies of atmospheric models that exhibit spatially extended chaos. We study the structure, spatial correlations, and the growth rates of logarithmic bred vectors (which are constructed by using a given norm). We find that, after a suitable transformation, logarithmic bred vectors are roughly piecewise copies of the leading Lyap...
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The breeding method has been implemented in the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) coupled general circulation model (CGCM) with the ultimate goal of improving operational seasonal to interannual climate predictions through ensemble forecasting and data assimilation. This is the first attempt to isolate the evolving ENSO instability and its corresponding global atmospheric ...
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Coupled bred vectors (BVs), generated from the NASA/GMAO coupled general circulation model, are designed to capture the uncertainties related to slowly varying coupled instabilities. Two applications of the BVs are investigated in this study. First, the coupled BVs are used as initial perturbations for ensemble forecasting purposes. Results show that the seasonal-to-interannual variability fore...
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2 Abstract The breeding method has been implemented in the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) coupled general circulation model (CGCM) in its operational configuration where ocean data assimilation is used to initialize the coupled forecasts. Bred vectors (BVs), designed to capture the dominant growing errors in the atmosphere-ocean coupled system, are applied as initial ensemb...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Monthly Weather Review
سال: 2012
ISSN: 0027-0644,1520-0493
DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-10-05054.1